UrbanSlide - Getting Ahead of Landslides: Understanding Social and Environmental Interactions to Anticipate Future Urban Landslide Risk

In his ERC-funded project UrbanSlide, Ugur Öztürk is investigating the complex risk of landslides. The background: the urban population has grown rapidly worldwide in recent decades. Currently, 65 million people live in areas at risk of landslides, and by 2050, the number of people affected is estimated to rise to 90 million. Such an increase in urban populations is often associated with landscape changes, which in turn increases the likelihood of landslides, especially in tropical areas. For example, unauthorized construction of houses could reduce slope stability and endanger the people living there. At the same time, human-induced climate change could double the extreme precipitation events relevant to landslides, thereby increasing the risk of landslides.

The ERC-funded UrbanSlide project aims to reveal the complex nature of landslide risk. It focuses on the interplay between social, ecological, and urbanization-related factors. The project's goal is to better quantify landslide risks in order to create a knowledge base for making informed decisions, especially in tropical cities. A hybrid model is used, integrating statistical and process-based approaches as well as empirical data on the interaction between society and the environment. The main focus is on predicting the various human actions that influence landslide risk.